It is Really Hard to Prove Causality
I first discussed causality in my post about how vegetarians are healthier, smarter, and often richer. I came across another intriguing example yesterday. You're at a crash scene. One person is dead. The driver who caused the collision registers a 0.242 blood alcohol level--the reading that an average male would have at ...

What is Auction Theory?
Auctions are Everywhere Auctions are so common nowadays that I bet most of you have participated in auctions in the last year. Even if you haven't, auctions have probably impacted your life indirectly. The cost of the road you drive on, the price of your airline ticket, and where your medical ...

Splitting the bill at restaurants using game theory
[Update: Welcome Lifehacker readers] [Update 2: Welcome Slashdot readers] [Update 3: Welcome Cosmic Variance readers] "We're going to split the bill," said the organizer at my friend's ninth grade birthday party. I didn't think much of it until I ended up paying $40 for a $10 entree. I felt cheated because I didn't ...

I Like to Fail
Which is more likely? (a) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl. (b) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl because Tom Brady is injured. Most people would say neither is likely. But if pressed to choose, they would answer that (b) is more likely of the two. After all, if Brady is injured, that ...

Food Fridays: Savings are Overrated
I'm tired of savings. I try not to think about them any more. And it's made me a better customer when considering food, clothes, cars, and even housing. I'll explain why through a hypothetical example. Here's a question for you: would you rather save $4 or $2 on the same ...

The surprise quiz paradox
In high school, a teacher announced he would give a pop quiz during the next week. I just laughed. Tricks are for rabbits, silly teacher--you can't surprise a rational student. To explain why, I'll use the technique of "backwards induction," which I introduced in the ultimatum post. So let's start from the ...

Food Fridays: Cloned Food by the Numbers
This week the FDA announced that cloned food is safe to eat. I've heard about 210 articles--literally all the articles that Google News listed. I'm still forming my opinion on the matter. My initial reaction is that the food is safe to eat, but there are ethical and environmental problems in ...

The Ultimatum Game and The Hollywood Writer’s Strike
Once during college, an annoying person asked me for game theory help. I offered to help even though it interrupted my own work. It was hard to turn down someone who lived in the same dorm. I offered to help, but wanted something in exchange. The person was a teaching assistant ...

One Reason to Buy Less Stuff
I'll use the decision to buy an iPhone as an example. Most people would ask, does the iPhone do enough to be worthy of its cost? Is it worth, say $400, to buy this device? One way to think is that the iPhone has more features than a $199 iPod and ...

Food Fridays: Vegetarians Are Healthier, Smarter, and Often Richer
I will start by admitting that I'm not a vegetarian. I eat very little meat nowadays, but I am not sure that I will ever be pure vegetarian. So relax. This article is not going to be preachy; what you eat is your business. This article is about explaining some true, but ...

How Can I Find True Love Using Game Theory?
Based on the top search results, you could: Learn from religious advice (love is what God says it is) Find your true love's zodiac sign through a five question quiz (I will love a Taurus) Consider phone counseling (only to realize you are the real problem) Man, what a rip-off. How did these answers ...

A Small Update to Expense Tracking Spreadsheet
Based on a reader suggestion, I made a small change the 2008 Simple Expense Tracker so it is easier to understand. My apologies for the prior confusion. For those of you that downloaded it, please replace your file with this new one: (The File: See Financial Tools). Here's what I changed: for ...