Archive for January, 2008

It is Really Hard to Prove Causality

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

I first discussed causality in my post about how vegetarians are healthier, smarter, and often richer. I came across another intriguing example yesterday. You're at a crash scene. One person is dead. The driver who caused the collision registers a 0.242 blood alcohol level--the reading that an average male would have at ...

Dividing a Restaurant Bill Using Mechanism Design

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Every Tuesday is a Game Theory article at Mind Your Decisions. Update: Welcome Lifehacker readers! See my weekly game theory articles and learn more about this website. A special thanks to Mike M. for suggesting this topic. “We’re going to split the bill,” said the organizer at my friend’s ninth grade birthday party. ...

I Like to Fail

Sunday, January 27th, 2008

Which is more likely? (a) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl. (b) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl because Tom Brady is injured. Most people would say neither is likely. But if pressed to choose, they would answer that (b) is more likely of the two. After all, if Brady is injured, that ...

Food Fridays: Savings are Overrated

Friday, January 25th, 2008

I’m tired of savings. I try not to think about them any more. And it’s made me a better customer when considering food, clothes, cars, and even housing. I’ll explain why through a hypothetical example. Here’s a question for you: would you rather save $4 or $2 on the same ...

How Expectations and Adaptation Affect Surprises in Game Theory

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008

Every Tuesday is a Game Theory article at Mind Your Decisions. In high school, a teacher announced he would give a pop quiz during the next week. I just laughed. Tricks are for rabbits, silly teacher—you can’t surprise a rational student. To explain why, I’ll use the technique of “backwards induction,” which ...