Mind Your Decisions

I Like to Fail

27 January 2008

Which is more likely?

(a) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl.
(b) The Patriots lose the Super Bowl because Tom Brady is injured.

Most people would say neither is likely. But if pressed to choose, they would answer that (b) is more likely of the two. After all, if Brady is injured, that would probably hurt the team’s chance of winning.

But that’s not the right way to think about it. The correct answer is (a). The reason is that (b) is a more restrictive sentence than (a).

Think about it. Statement (b) requires both that the Patriots lose and that Tom Brady gets injured. Statement (a) only requires that the Patriots lose.

As an example, if the Patriots were to lose with a healthy Tom Brady, then (a) would be true but (b) would be false.

And in general, any scenario where (b) is true would also have (a) being true. The reverse is not true.

Mathematically, we say that (b) is a subset of (a). Here’s a Venn diagram that illustrates the point:

Now, let’s apply that knowledge

Let’s say you are drafting financial goals (see why I write financial goals.) You have come up with two specifications of a goal.

(a) I will get a job tutoring students.
(b) I will get a job tutoring students that pays $100 a week, and I will save $15 for investing.

Which goal is more likely to fail?

The correct answer is (b) because it is a subset of (a).

Now, for a related question: which goal is better to write? That is, which goal is more likely to produce results?

The answer to this question is a topic of debate. Personally, I have found that statements like (b) are better—in fact, (b) was a goal I had during before going off to college.

Virtually all experts tell you to write specific goals. Specific goals afford guidelines and metrics on your progress, and they suggest a plan you can follow. Perhaps these psychological factors give us more motivation to start them.

“I will get a job tutoring students” leaves so much room for wonder. How much should the job pay? What will you do with the money?

I’m not sure I completely understand the psychology, but I do agree with the principle of specific goals. And that’s why I am productive but I often fail to meet my goals.

I don’t worry about failing. I worry about not doing things at all.