It is Really Hard to Prove Causality
I first discussed causality in my post about how vegetarians are healthier, smarter, and often richer.
I came across another intriguing example yesterday.
You’re at a crash scene. One person is dead. The driver who caused the collision registers a 0.242 blood alcohol level–the reading that an average male would have at about 8-9 drinks. It’s well above 0.06, the legal limit in your state. On further review, you estimate the driver had to have been traveling about twice the speed limit to cause such an impact.
You would think his excessive alcohol consumption caused reckless driving. One more reason to be tough on drunk drivers.
Except, there are other possibilities.
This story is based on an incident from 2004, where litigation is still pending. The driver is Edward McDermottroe, and here is the strange twist (via ABC News).
McDermottroe’s lawyer claims his client only had a blood-alcohol level of 0.06 and had returned a higher reading because a friend had poured a lot of alcohol down the man’s throat as he lay injured.
The prosecution argues there was no opportunity for that to happen.
The Chief Judge of the District Court is yet to decide which version of events to accept.
So there you go: it’s possible reckless driving caused excessive alcohol consumption.
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5 Responses to “It is Really Hard to Prove Causality”
With friends like that…
By Glenn on Jan 31, 2008
Where did you get the statistic for # of drinks = BAL? I’ve always been curious about that.
By Joon on Jan 31, 2008
@Joon: I just got it from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_alcohol_content), which is a copy of Virginia Tech’s website.
There are a bunch of calculators online. I think its fun to look at, but dangerous if you were to actually use it as a test before you driving. Especially since sleep debt and alcohol combine for a punch not measured in simple BAL levels.
By Presh Talwalkar on Jan 31, 2008
@Presh, that and the fact that field sobriety tests are subjective, so if the COPS feel like you’re drunk, they’ll take you in.
Wow, I got to watch myself now, after dropping all that weight, 2 drinks will take me out of the DD spot!
By RohoMech on Feb 1, 2008
@RohoMech: Yeah, it makes sense the test would be subjective. I mean the point is to take dangerous drivers off the road. The BAL is more of a legal thing to enforce “equality.”
By Presh Talwalkar on Feb 1, 2008