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	<title>Comments on: Make Money By Assuming the Best (Rationality) but Allowing for the Worst (Irrationality)</title>
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		<title>By: Presh Talwalkar</title>
		<link>http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-958</link>
		<dc:creator>Presh Talwalkar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2008 04:35:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/#comment-958</guid>
		<description>@Seth: Excellent points. I too made the mistake of imposing preferences on others in determining what is &quot;rational.&quot;

I really like this explanation:

&quot;Since in the real world it is nearly impossible to know another player’s prefs, a good approximation is to make the assumption of rationality, and let the choices made inform your notion of the player’s utility.&quot;

I&#039;m going to use that one in the future :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Seth: Excellent points. I too made the mistake of imposing preferences on others in determining what is &#8220;rational.&#8221;</p>
<p>I really like this explanation:</p>
<p>&#8220;Since in the real world it is nearly impossible to know another player’s prefs, a good approximation is to make the assumption of rationality, and let the choices made inform your notion of the player’s utility.&#8221;</p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to use that one in the future <img src='http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Seth</title>
		<link>http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-954</link>
		<dc:creator>Seth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2008 22:37:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/#comment-954</guid>
		<description>I think the important part of rationality is the notion that players make decisions according to their preferences.  We often casually say that a choice is irrational when we really mean is that the decisions is not in accord with our expectation of the players preferences.  Since in the real world it is nearly impossible to know another player&#039;s prefs, a good approximation is to make the assumption of rationality, and let the choices made inform your notion of the player&#039;s utility.

In this way of looking at it, even many clearly insane people are raional; they just have an unexpected preference set.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the important part of rationality is the notion that players make decisions according to their preferences.  We often casually say that a choice is irrational when we really mean is that the decisions is not in accord with our expectation of the players preferences.  Since in the real world it is nearly impossible to know another player&#8217;s prefs, a good approximation is to make the assumption of rationality, and let the choices made inform your notion of the player&#8217;s utility.</p>
<p>In this way of looking at it, even many clearly insane people are raional; they just have an unexpected preference set.</p>
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		<title>By: Presh Talwalkar</title>
		<link>http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-942</link>
		<dc:creator>Presh Talwalkar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 07:24:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/#comment-942</guid>
		<description>@Step: You make some great points, and remind me that I am being sloppy with my use of the words rational and irrational. Let me take a step back to be more precise.

--The Formal Definition--
In economics, a rational preference has a specific meaning. There are two requirements:

1. Completeness. For any two options X and Y, you either prefer X to Y, Y to X, or are indifferent. 

2. Transitivity: If X is preferred to Y, and Y is preferred to Z, then X must be preferred to  Z.

Dealing with preference ordering gets arduous when you have to compare thousands of choices. So economists use &quot;utility functions&quot; as a compact method. This means u(X) &gt; u(Y) only when X is preferred to Y. 

A preference can only be represented by a utility function if it is rational. 

--What is Irrational?--
Mahesh gives a good definition of irrational. It means that you choose a sub-optimal preference.  If you preferred X to Y, but decided to choose Y, then you made an irrational choice.

Or if you preferred X to Y, and Y to Z, but then chose Z over X. This is a topic I discussed in last week&#039;s article of voting.

--To answer Steph&#039;s examples--
Your examples are interesting, and you raise a question of whether the choices are truly irrational. In one sense, no, they are not. 

You&#039;re right that people are choosing things that make them happy under full information. They have choice, they are weighing options, and they are making a decision. It&#039;s wrong for me to say it&#039;s irrational just because I would not do those things.

But in another sense, I think the beliefs are irrational. This is because people can be made to have irrational beliefs and then act &quot;optimally.&quot; 

When women started smoking in America, they were doing so because celebrities told them it was a liberating experience. It is an example documented in &quot;The Century of the Self.&quot; The narrator explains that it&#039;s completely irrational that smoking would make a woman freer--you become a slave to nicotine and big business. But the image made them feel freer.

And that&#039;s why I call my examples &quot;irrational.&quot; When you look at the payoffs--IF ALL players were rational--then it doesn&#039;t make sense what people are doing.

Valentines day has marked up candy because people buy into the idea. People pay to wait around on an airplane since it sounds fun. Most of us know it&#039;s not really fun. 

Somewhere, I would say these strange actions are the result of irrational beliefs. I don&#039;t think people would do these things in the absence of marketing.

--To answer Mahesh--
You caught me--I was using the word irrational lazily. I&#039;ll have to look at those Becker articles; thanks for the pointer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Step: You make some great points, and remind me that I am being sloppy with my use of the words rational and irrational. Let me take a step back to be more precise.</p>
<p>&#8211;The Formal Definition&#8211;<br />
In economics, a rational preference has a specific meaning. There are two requirements:</p>
<p>1. Completeness. For any two options X and Y, you either prefer X to Y, Y to X, or are indifferent. </p>
<p>2. Transitivity: If X is preferred to Y, and Y is preferred to Z, then X must be preferred to  Z.</p>
<p>Dealing with preference ordering gets arduous when you have to compare thousands of choices. So economists use &#8220;utility functions&#8221; as a compact method. This means u(X) > u(Y) only when X is preferred to Y. </p>
<p>A preference can only be represented by a utility function if it is rational. </p>
<p>&#8211;What is Irrational?&#8211;<br />
Mahesh gives a good definition of irrational. It means that you choose a sub-optimal preference.  If you preferred X to Y, but decided to choose Y, then you made an irrational choice.</p>
<p>Or if you preferred X to Y, and Y to Z, but then chose Z over X. This is a topic I discussed in last week&#8217;s article of voting.</p>
<p>&#8211;To answer Steph&#8217;s examples&#8211;<br />
Your examples are interesting, and you raise a question of whether the choices are truly irrational. In one sense, no, they are not. </p>
<p>You&#8217;re right that people are choosing things that make them happy under full information. They have choice, they are weighing options, and they are making a decision. It&#8217;s wrong for me to say it&#8217;s irrational just because I would not do those things.</p>
<p>But in another sense, I think the beliefs are irrational. This is because people can be made to have irrational beliefs and then act &#8220;optimally.&#8221; </p>
<p>When women started smoking in America, they were doing so because celebrities told them it was a liberating experience. It is an example documented in &#8220;The Century of the Self.&#8221; The narrator explains that it&#8217;s completely irrational that smoking would make a woman freer&#8211;you become a slave to nicotine and big business. But the image made them feel freer.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s why I call my examples &#8220;irrational.&#8221; When you look at the payoffs&#8211;IF ALL players were rational&#8211;then it doesn&#8217;t make sense what people are doing.</p>
<p>Valentines day has marked up candy because people buy into the idea. People pay to wait around on an airplane since it sounds fun. Most of us know it&#8217;s not really fun. </p>
<p>Somewhere, I would say these strange actions are the result of irrational beliefs. I don&#8217;t think people would do these things in the absence of marketing.</p>
<p>&#8211;To answer Mahesh&#8211;<br />
You caught me&#8211;I was using the word irrational lazily. I&#8217;ll have to look at those Becker articles; thanks for the pointer.</p>
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		<title>By: Mahesh</title>
		<link>http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-941</link>
		<dc:creator>Mahesh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 05:24:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/#comment-941</guid>
		<description>I would not call people Irrational per se but as making deliberate sub-optimal choices when given a choice of economic options. Gary Becker at the U.Chicago and the 1992 Nobel Prize winner used preferences as a framework as skewing economic decisions and called it Behavioral Economics for which he was cited in the award. For example, he explained racism as not only morally wrong but why it is suboptimal economically. Expressing an irrational preference in making economic choices is penny foolish and pound foolish. Gary Becker wrote some great columns in Business Week for a long time about this.
To answer&#039;s Steph&#039;s question, economic definition of irrational is your preference to make sub-optimal choices and the degree of irrational behavior is proprtional to the utility you are willing to forgo to make that preference.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would not call people Irrational per se but as making deliberate sub-optimal choices when given a choice of economic options. Gary Becker at the U.Chicago and the 1992 Nobel Prize winner used preferences as a framework as skewing economic decisions and called it Behavioral Economics for which he was cited in the award. For example, he explained racism as not only morally wrong but why it is suboptimal economically. Expressing an irrational preference in making economic choices is penny foolish and pound foolish. Gary Becker wrote some great columns in Business Week for a long time about this.<br />
To answer&#8217;s Steph&#8217;s question, economic definition of irrational is your preference to make sub-optimal choices and the degree of irrational behavior is proprtional to the utility you are willing to forgo to make that preference.</p>
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		<title>By: Steph</title>
		<link>http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-940</link>
		<dc:creator>Steph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 03:28:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/02/19/game-theory-tuesdays-make-money-using-game-theory/#comment-940</guid>
		<description>Is there a definition in economics for “irrational” behavior?  I totally agree that buying marked up chocolates on Feb 14 or paying a premium for the latest fashions seems silly.  But I’m not sure I would characterize these choices as irrational – I would guess that most people who buy flowers or chocolates on Valentine’s Day know that the products are marked up, but they also know that they might get rewarded by bringing some home (or avoid getting in serious trouble).  Their utility matches the price they are willing to pay.  They perhaps could have planned ahead in the case of chocolates, but when they are in the store on Feb 14, that ship has sailed, and their decision to buy is fully informed and based upon the marked up price.

A similar example I have come across recently is the case of an Indian company that is offering a “plane ride to nowhere” on which passengers board an Airbus 300 in Delhi, are waited on by flight attendants, and receive “in-flight” announcements all while sitting on the ground.  (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2558290.ece)  To me, paying to sit on an airplane and go nowhere would be completely irrational, but to people who may never get to experience the real thing, I can see how it could be worth it.  They are getting utility that you are I may not get – just as people who buy chocolates on Valentine’s Day or buy the latest fashions are getting some sort of utility out of it that is causing them to pay the premium.

I’ve always thought of irrationality in an economic sense to be a decision that is made with asymmetrical information where utility is inconsistent.  An example of the former would be buying an airline ticket from Orbitz when you could get the exact same ticket from Expedia for $100 less.  If you aren’t aware that Expedia is offering a lower price, you might make the decision to buy the ticket from Orbitz, a decision which I think economists would consider “irrational” – under perfect market conditions, economists would predict that Orbitz would sell zero tickets even if its price was even $1 higher.  An example of the latter (taken from Berkeley prof Matthew Rabin) would be that many people prefer $10 today over $15 one week from now, but prefer $15 fifty-one weeks from now over $10 fifty weeks from now.

What is the economic definition of irrational?  And are there different degrees of irrationality?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there a definition in economics for “irrational” behavior?  I totally agree that buying marked up chocolates on Feb 14 or paying a premium for the latest fashions seems silly.  But I’m not sure I would characterize these choices as irrational – I would guess that most people who buy flowers or chocolates on Valentine’s Day know that the products are marked up, but they also know that they might get rewarded by bringing some home (or avoid getting in serious trouble).  Their utility matches the price they are willing to pay.  They perhaps could have planned ahead in the case of chocolates, but when they are in the store on Feb 14, that ship has sailed, and their decision to buy is fully informed and based upon the marked up price.</p>
<p>A similar example I have come across recently is the case of an Indian company that is offering a “plane ride to nowhere” on which passengers board an Airbus 300 in Delhi, are waited on by flight attendants, and receive “in-flight” announcements all while sitting on the ground.  (<a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2558290.ece" rel="nofollow">http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2558290.ece</a>)  To me, paying to sit on an airplane and go nowhere would be completely irrational, but to people who may never get to experience the real thing, I can see how it could be worth it.  They are getting utility that you are I may not get – just as people who buy chocolates on Valentine’s Day or buy the latest fashions are getting some sort of utility out of it that is causing them to pay the premium.</p>
<p>I’ve always thought of irrationality in an economic sense to be a decision that is made with asymmetrical information where utility is inconsistent.  An example of the former would be buying an airline ticket from Orbitz when you could get the exact same ticket from Expedia for $100 less.  If you aren’t aware that Expedia is offering a lower price, you might make the decision to buy the ticket from Orbitz, a decision which I think economists would consider “irrational” – under perfect market conditions, economists would predict that Orbitz would sell zero tickets even if its price was even $1 higher.  An example of the latter (taken from Berkeley prof Matthew Rabin) would be that many people prefer $10 today over $15 one week from now, but prefer $15 fifty-one weeks from now over $10 fifty weeks from now.</p>
<p>What is the economic definition of irrational?  And are there different degrees of irrationality?</p>
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