Comments on: Risk is Not the Science of Calculated Odds; It is an Art of Skepticism http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/ Articles on game theory and personal finance Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:20:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Presh Talwalkar http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/comment-page-1/#comment-1384 Presh Talwalkar Wed, 16 Apr 2008 03:40:23 +0000 http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/#comment-1384 <b><em>Michael Webster</b></em>: Your observation about Taleb great...it made me laugh. I appreciate the book rec's to give another perspective--you are very well read :) Michael Webster: Your observation about Taleb great…it made me laugh.

I appreciate the book rec’s to give another perspective–you are very well read :)

]]> By: michael webster http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/comment-page-1/#comment-1382 michael webster Wed, 16 Apr 2008 02:01:55 +0000 http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/#comment-1382 Taleb is an interesting writer, but prone to overblown statements. Model risk is well known, especially by poker players. Taleb is complaining about a particular model of financial risk in which risk is reduced to volatility. To better understand the tremendous strides we have taken in understanding and modeling risk, I would recommend both Berstein's book on Risk and Hackings' book on the Emergence of Probability. Taleb is an interesting writer, but prone to overblown statements.

Model risk is well known, especially by poker players.

Taleb is complaining about a particular model of financial risk in which risk is reduced to volatility.

To better understand the tremendous strides we have taken in understanding and modeling risk, I would recommend both Berstein’s book on Risk and Hackings’ book on the Emergence of Probability.

]]> By: Presh Talwalkar http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/comment-page-1/#comment-1256 Presh Talwalkar Sat, 05 Apr 2008 06:13:30 +0000 http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/#comment-1256 <b><em>Mahesh</b></em>: Excellently stated. Mahesh: Excellently stated.

]]> By: Mahesh http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/comment-page-1/#comment-1248 Mahesh Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:18:29 +0000 http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/#comment-1248 Modeling risk and recognizing risk are two different things. Decisons and their scope should be made on both the modeling aspect and the recognition of risk. You can't let the modeling of risk issues interfere with your decision making process. Sometimes decisions can't wait or the worse risk may be in not taking any decision at all. A good risk model should be able to quantify the recognition of a risk to a certain extent but you should not become a slave to it and let it drive your decision. We tend to like our own risk models and we forget that it is to quantify it to a certain degree of probability but not to a complete certainity. Nice summary by Roho Mech!! Modeling risk and recognizing risk are two different things. Decisons and their scope should be made on both the modeling aspect and the recognition of risk. You can’t let the modeling of risk issues interfere with your decision making process. Sometimes decisions can’t wait or the worse risk may be in not taking any decision at all. A good risk model should be able to quantify the recognition of a risk to a certain extent but you should not become a slave to it and let it drive your decision. We tend to like our own risk models and we forget that it is to quantify it to a certain degree of probability but not to a complete certainity.
Nice summary by Roho Mech!!

]]> By: Presh Talwalkar http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/comment-page-1/#comment-1245 Presh Talwalkar Fri, 04 Apr 2008 02:16:10 +0000 http://mindyourdecisions.com/blog/2008/04/03/risk-is-not-the-science-of-calculated-odds-it-is-an-art-of-skepticism/#comment-1245 <b><em>Michael Cardus</b></em>: That's a very interesting story. Pricing risk is a tough job and often depends on who ends up paying. <b><em>RohoMech</b></em>: Yes, one should carry skepticism to model predictions. Michael Cardus: That’s a very interesting story. Pricing risk is a tough job and often depends on who ends up paying.

RohoMech: Yes, one should carry skepticism to model predictions.

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