No, retiring early won’t kill you: understanding studies of retirement and longevity

I understand that retiring is never an easy decision. People wonder about how they will spend their time, and whether they will be happy outside of a job.

I get that. But what I don’t like is the unusual fear-mongering about change. Reputable magazines publish some things that scare people into working, even when it is not the best choice.

For instance, an article in AARP a few years ago pushed the idea that early retirement translates into early death. Really, I’m not making this up!

Here is the passage that caught my eye from this story:

A job is probably the easiest way to help you feel your life has purpose . . . [e]ven if your job is not the greatest. . . But there’s more. A European study that tracked 16,827 Greek men and women for 12 years found that those who retired early had a 51 percent higher mortality rate than those who kept working. And according to a 2005 study that followed 3,500 Shell Oil employees, those who retired at 55 were twice as likely to die during the next ten years as people the same age who continued to work.

It sounds scary, especially when backed up with all those statistics.

I mean I would not like a 51 percent higher mortality rate. And if retiring at 55 means I am twice as likely to die, I would happily stay at my job, putting up with all of my boss’s antics.

But is it really true that retiring leads to higher mortality? Or is there something going on with the statistics?

I had to investigate the numbers further. And after some digging, I can happily report there is nothing to worry about.

Retiring early does NOT lead to an early death. In fact, if there is any causal relationship, the evidence seems to point in the opposite direction: retiring early can boost your longevity by reducing mortality risk 12 to 23 percent.

Below I explain what the those statistics cited in AARP do not measure, and why retirement can be a boost to your health.

Summary of longevity studies

The issue of longevity and retirement is one that will come up time and again. Here is a cheat sheet on what the major studies have found.

The longevity studies quoted in AARP

I did some research into the AARP article becuase I had to figure out why early retirement was associated with higher mortality.

First, let’s tackle the Greek study of 16,827 people. The research did in fact find that early retirement was associated with a higher mortality rate. But a published follow-up comment in the same journal pointed out several issues of study.

Most notably, the Greek study did not take into account many confounding factors like socio-economic class and occupation. Also, the comment pointed out that retirees and employees may not have equal access to health coverage in Greece. These factors can partly account for why retirees had a higher mortality risk.

Second, consider the Shell Oil study that retirees at 55 are twice as likely to die than those that work. Again, it sounds scary, but this is not as scary as it sounds. The statistical problem here is a selection bias: people in poor health do not expect a long life and hence they select themselves out of the workforce. In fact, the study admits to this bias and cautions against its results:

We could not assess directly the issue of whether employees who retired at a younger age were in poorer health than those who retired later as data were not available…. It is reasonable to assume that some workers retired at 55 because of failing health, as the mortality for this group in the first 10 years after retirement was almost twofold higher than that of their peers who continued working.

I cannot confidently say the higher mortality was entirely due to failing health of early retirees, but there is at least a logical connection between the two.

To figure out what is really going, we need to consider a third, more comprehensive study.

The truth: early retirement could boost your longevity

This comes from the 2009 study about German workers which is the most recent study to date (it was published after the AARP article so the writers could not have known its results).

The study takes into account 88,399 men and 41,276 women who retired between the ages of 50 to 65. This study has nearly 8 times the sample size of the Greek study.

Here is what the researchers found about retirement and longevity.

But healthy people who retire early do not experience shorter long-term survival than those who retire late. On the contrary, if we take into consideration the amount of days spent in hospital during the last 2 years prior to retirement, early retirement in fact lowers mortality risks significantly by 12% for men and by 23% for women. (emphasis mine)

The study points out that early retirement is a combination of two forces. For people in poor health, retirement is a necessity and that filters them out of the workforce. For people in good health, retirement is a PROTECTIVE force that shields them from the stress of work.

To quote the study, early retirement is an “asset” for healthy people.

In conclusion: retire when you want and enjoy life

Beware of statistical associations that says you can’t retire for health reasons. Even an organization like AARP that is supposed to support and encourage retired people can fall prey to statistics.

Be happy that you have retired and liberated yourself from the grind of the office. It’s your chance to enjoy the finer things in life. Find purpose and meaning in that.